Cyprus is currently experiencing the most dramatic collapse yet in a Euro Zone crisis that is only deepening in its third year. Only a few weeks after center-right leader Nicos Anatasiades decisively won presidential elections, he now governs a country enduring nothing less than economic siege, with banks shuttered and a modern economy reduced to an exchange cash -however much is let into circulation. Any faint hope that European economic policy is no longer set to austerity and depression must surely be shattered after all that has passed.
As in the other bailed out countries like Portugal, Greece and Ireland, what has been done to Cyprus has both culprits abroad and at home. Cypriot President Anatasiades originally agreed to the bail-in of small depositors only for that plan to fail in the Cypriot parliament. He then had his finance minister pursue a deal with Russia that would never materialize, before finally going back to the Troika and agreeing to a deal that leaves small depositors untouched, but that ultimately pulverizes the banking sector with great collateral damage to the “real economy”.
Abroad, creditor states led by Germany ambushed Cyprus in the nation state bargaining arena that is the Eurogroup. It is an unsustainable situation in which domestic German politics imposed itself on Cypriot society. Looking ahead to German elections in the fall, Berlin insisted on Cyprus financing nearly half the bailout by raiding its own bank deposits. The Troika would deliver 10 billion euros, Cyprus had to deliver the other 5.8 billion euros. Dramatic conditions before even discussing any austerity measures like the ones seen in Greece, Portugal, and Ireland.
More than any previous bailouts, even the ones of Greece, the Cyprus bailout has the least chance of succeeding in stabilizing the financial crisis. The other bailouts succeeded in calming markets for a time, until the markets were awaken to the economic, social and political reality. The Cypriot bailout, on the other hand, has caused so much damage up front, failure is inevitable and in very short order.
Bank are already closed into their second week, paralyzing Cypriot commerce. Economic forecasts as a result of the turmoil are dire. Unemployment may doubling from an already high 14% to a socially explosive 30%. Analysts see the economy contracting by more than 10%, higher than even the savage economic contractions witnessed in Greece. All of this will inevitably play havoc with the country’s deficit and national debt, with tax revenue collapsing as taxpayers lose their jobs or see salaries reduced. Out of fear of spending more than 10 billion euros on a bailout, the Troika may have just made sure Cypriot economy is unable to pay back that amount loaned to it.
The Cyprus debacle demonstrates how Europe as an entity still doesn’t function. The continent is trapped between two impossibilities. Politicians in the bailed out countries are terrified of adding an uncontrolled Euro Zone exit on top of the economic depressions they already endure. At the same time, both creditor and debtor states balk at ripping up the sovereignty of European nation states in order to build the common, authentic European institutions necessary for monetary union. Unable to go forward or revert to the old mode of individual currencies, the continent simply sinks, with saw, nation state rivalries intensifying all the way down.
The bitterness toward Germany is only growing deeper and spreading beyond Greece. Just since the flair up in Cyprus; a protester in Cyprus scaled the German embassy and took down the German flag, Spanish newspaper El Pais published and then retracted an article by an economist comparing Merkel to Hitler, and the Luxembourg foreign minister accused Germany of striving for hegemony in Europe. It’s impossible not to feel deep unease for the continent, that it’s continuing to find darker aspects of its history and nature. The crisis has shattered the promise of prosperity in Europe, and with the misery set to continue and deepen, the promise of peace looks increasingly lost as well.
It’s so difficult to say anything that hasn’t already been said about the crisis in Europe. This past Saturday, I watched closely as Portuguese rallied in enormous numbers against the foreign imposed austerity measures. The energy of tens of thousands filling the streets is momentarily intoxicating as ever, especially when they sing Grandola, Vila Morena, a song charged with revolutionary energy and optimism. But as soon as the last verse is sung, the crowds begin to demobilize; videos, photos and memories are the only evidence that there was even a protest of such scale. Because the next day, as the political leaders remain indifferent, the discussion already switches to the next austerity measures and the next bleak economic headline.
This has played out countless times in each crisis hit country in the Euro Zone. The social anxiety of the public spills out onto the streets as anger and then recedes back into anxiety. Then, a sense of defeat sinks in during the following weeks and months, until the latest provocation of yet more sacrifices transforms that anxiety into yet more protests by thousands of angry, crisis fatigued citizens.
I think the reason for this is obvious, though I suspect many who attend, promote and organize these protests don’t want to hear it. The protests aren’t to challenge the government, but only to probe the government’s resolve. When the government’s resolve proves to be unshaken, since there is no policy alternative within the current framework of the Troika, there’s no where to go but to return to that state of social anxiety. The point A to point B marches play it safe, expressing their demands but not setting out an objective that is to be reached through various tactics. I would call it public relations but I think organizers of protests like Que Se Lixe A Troika sincerely believe mass marches every few months can stop the austerity. I’m here to say that this is a miscalculation.
It’s easy to see how opposition to austerity will eventually triumph, the policies undoubtedly cause tremendous economic and social damage. Each round of cuts and tax hikes align more people against the government and the international creditors known as the Troika. Inevitably, the protests in Spain, Greece, and Portugal has swelled with each passing year. But this slow grind of declining legitimacy for governments in southern Europe has great risk. As we can see in Greece, a neo-nazi party, Golden Dawn, has surged onto the highest stage of Greek politics, now polling 3rd overall, this as its militias violently attack immigrants on the streets. Spanish society, if eroded by a similar amount of austerity, could see regional and cultural differences hardened. Portugal, with no parliamentary far-right in existence, could be tempted by similar extreme nationalists in the years ahead as frustration with mainstream parties grow.
There is a clock ticking away in Europe, but it isn’t necessarily counting down till the day when the streets banish the troika’s authority. Rather, this is a clock ticking down to when that far-right menace erupts to break up the European project on its own terms, all the while fanning once dormant national rivalries. This isn’t without precedent in Europe. It was during the ’80s that another federation of nations, Yugoslavia, was subject to fierce austerity which provokes strike action like we see in Europe today. But they fell short, and by the early ’90s, nationalists would assert themselves and give Europe another bloody chapter of warfare and ethnic cleansing.
The forces opposed to austerity must set political objectives, and deploy tactics to reach those objectives. This doesn’t have to mean preparing for insurrection and siege of congress like some in Spain are organizing for. In Portugal, where political violence isn’t what it is in Greece or Spain, daily mobilizations could replicate the success of the protests of late in Bulgaria. With the right-wing coalition government in Portugal plotting further austerity to the tune of 4 billion euros in cuts, the urgency should be widely shared. The streets must themselves become political actors, not merely a visual of the discontent politicians see in any monthly political survey. There has to be a willingness by anti-austerity forces to fail, to overplay their hand. It doesn’t require the approval of the whole country or hundreds of thousands of people to get involved. Even thousands, if they are committed and share common purpose and tactics, can achieve a government’s resignation. Those thousands shouldn’t be hard to find amid the misery that exists across southern Europe today.
Following the mass, peaceful, anti-austerity demos across Spain on February 23rd, I noticed a far more militant call to mobilize from the platform that organized the September 25th protest of 2012 which saw protesters attempting to surround congress violently charged by riot police. Will provide my best translation of the flyer below and document realized by organizers.
Date: April 25th
Place: Around the Congress of Deputies.
Time: To be Announced.
Duration: Indefinite (Until the objectives are achieved).
Primary Action: Siege and definitive liberation of the Congress of Deputies.
Secondary Actions: Scattered Autonomous actions that impact the ruling power (always within the margin of human rights).
Objective: The fall of the regime (resignation of the government, dismissing Congress and the head of state), and the opening of a transition process to make a new model of political, economic and social organization truly based on justice and solidarity.
Just as we announced this passed December [https://plataformaenpie.wordpress.com/2012/12/07/convocando-a-la-rebelion/], from the platform ¡En Pie!, original organizers of the action “Occupy Congress” and therefore initiators of the movement 25S, we make a new appeal to society for a call to popular rebellion, that will continue the movement started last September 25th.
A small group of ordinary people can propose an action like this, and a single person can create the event from a computer, but this proposal will only be realized if everyone of us wants it to happen. When last June we brought forward the call “Occupy Congress”, the proposal was met with unprecedented support. We expected the fighting spirit to fade away, it has become stronger, and this time there are even more of us involved in it. For our part, with the appeal to action that this time can be an inflection point in the history of this country, and with the pledge and commitment to do everything in our hands to make it so, we call upon people all across Spain to travel in large numbers to Madrid next April 25th, and surround the Congress of Deputies, carrying out the main action of maintaining siege until forcing the resignation of the government, the dissolution of congress and the head of state, & starting a transition process to make a new model of political, economic and social organization based truly on justice and solidarity.
At the same time, we invite those who are interested, to organize themselves in small affinity groups to carry out, both in Madrid as in the rest of the country, secondary actions that affect control centers of the ruling power, such as occupations, blocking highways, thereby supporting the main action around congress & complicating the work of the regime’s oppressive forces, Creativity to Power!
From the platform ¡En Pie! we invite everyone to take up this action, whether from organizations or as an individual, since it can bring together all demands for which we’ve been struggling for in the streets. And because we believe that through this appeal we can channel all the outrage and all the pain that we are living through as a society, and transforming this suffering into dignity and in victory for the people. This is an appeal with a defined character, with a clear insurrectionary spirit, that can be joined freely by whoever feels affinity with it. We don’t seek to unite under any single organization, nor seek to recruit, replace, lead, subordinate, or to control. Our intention is to coordinate with respect for differences, heterogeneity, and autonomy of different approaches by groups and individuals, therefore, we demand the same respect given to Platform ¡En Pie! and the spirit of the appeal.
We want in this appeal to make a special consideration to the community of woman, with whom the system has been especially malicious. We consider it essential that women step forward and exercise leadership so that this revolutionary process is done on equal footing, women and men, shoulder to shoulder, struggling for a shared objective.
Accordingly, we encourage all individuals and groups to organize themselves with respect to individual responsibility, and respect the different forms of struggle, always within the margin of human rights, having considered the consequences of each decision on everyone else who is present there.
For our part, we position ourselves in favor of legitimate self defense before the brutality of the regime, and we promote solidarity among protesters, resisting the tactics of manipulation by political power, that with its repressive laws will construct a police state with the aim to intimidate, control and stop protests. We should lose our naivety, the enemy to beat is strong and without qualms, but now we’ve gained experience that before we did not have. we have seen it happen, we have suffered its beatings, we prepare ourselves, we learn to defend ourselves.
we remember that the objective of this movement isn’t to protest, to give pity, or awaken compassion. The objective is to achieve a real change, the liberation of the people, definitively, taking the reigns of our destiny. And this effort demands the utmost. In this sense, as we already said on more than one occasion, we will not force anything that as a society we aren’t prepared for, however, neither will we prevent anything that the people gathered decide, because we don’t want to foster a controlled dissent in any way.
In any case, regardless of the personal option of each person, we are clear that there’s a place for everyone in this struggle, so that we can help do away with the cruel, current regime, and build something that as a society we can feel pride in.
Beyond the borders of our country, we want to expand this call, to send a message of support and to propose unity to the brotherly people of Europe, that just like us, are living in incredibly difficult moments. It is imperative that we make a common front of resistance to the capitalist dictatorship, the struggle will only be won together.
Will be the desire, determination and strength of the people that decides if this new mobilization is the definitive date or yet another battle in this war between rich and poor, in which we are forced to fight, and that we are certain that we will win sooner or later.
Find your place, organize, and come!
Video of the september 25th protest that was brutality set upon by police, an action that has clearly radicalized the movement and an action, I suspect, the police will come to regret as the 25th of April approaches: